41,945 people in 2000.
42,196 people in 2001.
43,005 people in 2002.
Can you guess what this is?
Here’s another pattern.
36,355 people in 2019.
39,007 people in 2020.
43,230 people in 2021.
This is the number of traffic fatalities in the U.S. by year. Notice the sudden increase in traffic deaths during these two periods. Why did that happen?
Because people miscalculated risk after 9/11 and during COVID.
After 9/11, people were afraid to fly because of the risk of terrorism. During COVID, people were afraid to fly because of the risk of getting sick. So they drove instead.
In these cases, people miscalculated risk in both directions. They feared fake risks and ignored real risks. The consequences were tragic.
Experts determine that driving is 100x more dangerous than flying a commercial airline.
From 2000-2024, there were 753 total deaths in U.S. commercial air travel, including 9/11. More people die in traffic accidents in two weeks than died in commercial flights over two decades. And that’s just deaths. The risk gap widens even more when you include accidents and injuries.
Flying is lower risk but people fear it more. Driving is higher risk but people fear it less.
Flying has risks. Driving has risks. The difference is that people fear fake risks with flying and treat them as real. While the real risks of driving get treated as fake.
This message isn’t about flying or driving, 9/11 or COVID. It’s about raising your self-awareness. How often do you fear fake risks that unintentionally expose you to real risks you don’t see?
Humans are horrible at assessing risk. Use this awareness to see beyond your instinctive feelings. Consider what feels real but isn’t. Look for the real risk you’re not seeing.
Event + Response = Outcome. Do the work.
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